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İçerik şöyle:
THE RISE of CHINA and the BELT & ROAD INITIATIVE
Ulaş Başar Gezgin
Contents
Belt and Road Initiative: Globalization with Chinese Characteristics or the Revival of Historical Silk Road?
Reception of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative in Vietnam: Between Security Concerns and Infrastructural Financing Needs
The Expected Effects of Belt and Road Initiative Projects on the Unity of ASEAN: A Tale of Further Integration or Disintegration?
Russian and Central Asian Views on China’s Belt & Road Initiative
South Asian Perspectives on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and China Pakistan Economic Corridor
Kitabın kapsamı şöyle:
BOOK OVERVIEW
Chapter 1.
Belt and Road Initiative: Globalization with Chinese Characteristics or the Revival of Historical Silk Road?
Abstract
In this chapter, we present and discuss different views on Belt and Road Initiative. Positive approaches view it as a tool for economic development and poverty reduction, while negative views consider it as a version of Chinese colonialism. Its sheer size points out even a grander project behind it which is called as ‘Pax Sinica’ replacing ‘Pax Americana’ as the new global world order. The views of various countries on BRI do differ as well. While some countries can be called as BRI-negative or BRI-averse others are more open to the related projects. There are also different positions about BRI within each country. To add even more complications, China is far from a uniform and completely coordinated actor in BRI. Negative views revolve on debt traps, securitization/militarization and environmental impacts. Each of these are briefly discussed in this chapter. We conclude that neither negative nor positive views are completely correct. BRI will have both advantages (especially for landlocked countries in the nearby region) and disadvantages. Although the initial model is the historical Silk Road, BRI’s effects will be more extensive and influential.
Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, One Belt One Road, globalization with Chinese characteristics, the New Silk Road and debt trap.
Chapter 2.
Reception of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative in Vietnam: Between Security Concerns and Infrastructural Financing Needs
Abstract
In this chapter, we elaborate on how Chinese Belt and Road Initiative projects (formerly known as One Belt One Road) are received in Vietnam. Sino-Vietnamese relations are usually shadowed by the maritime dispute over South China/East Vietnam Sea. Thus, some of the Vietnamese researchers are skeptical and cautious about BRI expansion. Although it predominantly appears to be an economic model, BRI routes pass through disputed waters which makes us think that it also has a geostrategical dimension. However, Vietnam as a country of infrastructure gap, in which energy demand grows faster than the economy, needs BRI infrastructure investments to cut the transportation and energy costs, and accordingly become more competitive. In that sense, BRI projects are definitely needed. As a response to BRI, a group of opposing countries, U.S., Australia, Japan and India developed the idea of Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) excluding China. Vietnam, rather than becoming a battleground of an international conflict as is the case in the 20th century, applies a balancing and hedging strategy. BRI also activates IPS which may offer attractive proposals to lure Vietnam away from China. On the other hand, Sino-Vietnamese economic relations are very deep and close. Thus Vietnam is not willing to risk losing one for another. In this chapter, Vietnamese positions over BRI projects and the likely future of Vietnam through BRI are presented and discussed.
Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, One Belt One Road, Vietnam, BRI-skepticism, and Sino-Vietnamese relations.
Chapter 3.
The Expected Effects of Belt and Road Initiative Projects on the Unity of ASEAN: A Tale of Further Integration or Disintegration?
Abstract
ASEAN, a regional organization covering 600 million people is expected to be highly affected by the rolling out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in the region. The optimists point out that the increasing connectivity will serve ASEAN’s own infrastructural plans for regional integration that lacks funds for implementation, while the pessimists remind us the likely polarization and antagonization of ASEAN member states as a response to BRI projects, since BRI’s effects on each member state are not uniform. While some of the ASEAN member states are in conflict with China due to South China/East Vietnam Sea; others have no conflicts to start with. Secondly, while some of the countries have smaller economies which make them more fragile against debts incurred by BRI projects, others are more assertive in their expectations of more favorable terms and conditions. The United States, Australia, India and Japan as major opponents of China and BRI are forming a Quad with the notion of Indo-Pacific Strategy; however, their combined influence is far from visible in the region. In this chapter, within this context, we reflect on the likely effects of BRI projects on ASEAN and South East Asia.
Keywords: China, Belt and Road Initiative, ASEAN, South East Asia, and Sino-ASEAN relations.
Chapter 4.
Russian and Central Asian Views on China’s Belt & Road Initiative
Abstract
In this chapter, we review and discuss Russian and Central Asian views on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). BRI is considered to be a panacea for multiple problems of China such as the Xinjiang issue, economic slowdown, excess capacity etc. In this context, Chinese principle of non-interference is increasingly questioned as it is hard to separate economical, geopolitical and security dimensions. Russian influence over Central Asia is expected to wane due to BRI projects which may cause Sino-Russian conflicts. On the other hand, Russian isolation after the Ukrainian crisis makes Russia to consider BRI in amicable terms.
Central Asian official views on BRI are mostly positive, although local peoples’ objections involving social and environmental impacts are noteworthy. Since the region is landlocked, the prospects are high. However, rather than earning transit revenues only, the regional states are in expectation of Chinese investments in other business areas. Central Asia is far from the goal of regional integration. Border disputes, water scarcity, intra-regional mistrust etc. are divisive enough to prevent the region to act in a coordinated manner with regard to BRI. China, on this occasion, appears to be the major force to integrate the region.
Keywords: China, Belt and Road Initiative, Sino-Russian relations, Central Asia, and geopolitics.
Chapter 5. South Asian Perspectives on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and China Pakistan Economic Corridor
Abstract
China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is expected to dramatically change geo-economical and geo-political ‘great game’ in the heart Afro-Eurasia. This change will gain its impetus through Central Asia, South East Asia and South Asia. The leading powers of South Asia are India and Pakistan which consider each other as the main threat to his very existence and persistence. One of the key projects of BRI is the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC which will connect China’s Xinjiang to the Afro-Asian Ocean (which is politically incorrectly named as ‘the India Ocean’) has passed through Pakistan-controlled Kashmir region which rings alarm bells in India. Furthermore, China’s increasing presence in the island states of South Asia which are traditionally considered to be India’s ‘backyard’ evokes the suspicion of containment and encirclement of India. For these and some other reasons, India stays away from BRI projects, but with the completion of CPEC, it will be too late for India to respond. CPEC can either exacerbate the existing regional and across-the-border conflicts or alleviate them through economic prosperity. In this chapter, Indian and Pakistani views on China’s rise, BRI and CPEC are presented and discussed with a geo-strategical futures perspective.
Keywords: China, Belt and Road Initiative, India, Pakistan and China Pakistan Economic Corridor